Software for Forecasting the NFL® Season

Make accurate NFL predictions with your own computer

NFL Prediction Software

Software Documentation

How Predictions Are Made

Latest Predictions

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You must be connected to the internet to download the basic data (the NFL schedule and current power ratings) needed to run the software. The software is very easy to use. Additional features will be added to the software on a regular basis.

Basic NFL Predictions

When the software starts, a screen showning the current power ratings of each team appears. These are used to predict the outcome of any unplayed games, as shown on the sliders on the advanced analysis tab. To obtain basic predictions for the remainder of the season:

1) Select “Forecast” on the Menu Bar and then select “Forecast Remainder of Season”. The predictions will take several seconds, depending on the speed of your computer.

2) After the forecast has been made, you can click through the various tabs on the bottom of the window to view the corresponding predictions.

3) The power ratings and game outcomes are updated each week of the season.

Using the "Advanced Analyis" Screen

This screen lists the entire schedule of unplayed games for the remainder of the season. You can control the list of games shown using the controls on the left portion of the panel. In some circumstances you may wish to change the odds of one or more games. You can do this by moving the slider for each game of interest. The slider displays the percent likelihood of a home team victory. Away teams are allways listed first, so move the slider towards the team you expect to win. Some examples of when you may want to adjust the sliders include:

1) A game has just finished and you want to see up-to-the minute forecasts based on the outcome of that game. Move the slider all the way over to the team that won.

2) You want to do some conditional forecasts for your team. For example maybe you want to know the likelihood of your team getting a first round bye if it wins the rest of their games. Or you want to know the probability of winning the division if you win an upcoming game against a division rival. In these cases, move the slider all the way over to the team you think will win.

3) You disagree with the game outcome probabilites shown on the slider. You can adjust the outcome probability for that game to what you consider to be a more accurate value.

After making the changes in the game outcomes follow the steps in the Basic Operation section to get the new forecasts. To reset the the game outcome probabilites, download the current power ratings again using the top menu.

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